NEWSLETTER: JULY - DECEMBER 2022 French Portuguese The Africa Training Institute (ATI) is part of a network of IMF regional training centers around the world, which help develop countries’ policymaking capacity by transferring economic skills and best practices. It’s training courses are open to government and central bank officials from 45 sub-Saharan African member countries. Courses are offered in English and French, or in English with simultaneous interpretation into French and Portuguese. Ghana, Mauritius, Madagascar, Malawi, Nigeria, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, China, Germany, and European Investment Bank are the current contributing partners and members of the Institute. The Institute is located in Bramer House, Ebene, Mauritius. WHAT’S INSIDE THIS ISSUE Highlights Staff news News & Events ATI Training Webinars/Outreach Peer-to-peer and ATI Research Seminars Feedback from Participants on ATI CD Events Highlights by Mr. Sukhwinder Singh ATI Director As the pandemic eased over the second half of 2022, ATI continued to scale up its capacity development (CD) activities. Most significantly, after two-years of virtual delivery, this semester saw the Center welcome back officials from across sub-Saharan Africa to Mauritius with the resumption of in-person training. Over the six months from June to December 2022, the Center hosted 17 classroom courses (10 in-person) and 9 non-course CD activities such as webinars, conferences, peer-to-peer research seminars and outreach. A total of 317 participants attended the 17 courses and the webinars were attended by over 8000 participants. Courses and webinars covered both traditional macroeconomic and financial topics, but also new and conjunctural topics, such as Macroeconomics of Pandemics, Climate Change, Fintech, and Inequality. These included a high-level policy dialogue on Inequality and Policy Challenges in a post-COVID environment. Other highlights included the arrival of the IMF’s first resident advisor in Macroeconomics and Climate which will enhance the Center’s CD in this critical topic, and the inaugural delivery of the Macroeconomics of Climate Change Course. ATI staff also delivered training for the SADC in South Africa at the annual Macroeconomic Surveillance and Peer Review Refresher Course, as well as publishing in the IMF’s Economic Review and an IMF Working Paper. In August, the Center bade farewell to Director Abdoul Wane whose work over the past four years was greatly appreciated by all the membership. Please look out for the Annual Report covering FY22 which will be released in early 2023. STAFF NEWS STAFF NEWS: MR. SUKHWINDER SINGH, ATI DIRECTOR The Africa Training Institute is pleased to welcome Mr. Sukhwinder Singh as the new Director of the Africa Training Institute (ATI) and AFRITAC South (AFS). Mr. Singh has joined officially on September 5, 2022. He was previously advisor in the IMF’s African Department. He has worked at the Fund for 24 years. He was the first Director of the IMF’s South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center (SARTTAC) which he helped set up in New Delhi from 2016-2020. During his Fund career he has worked in the Strategy, Policy and Review, Asia and Pacific, and African Departments. During this time, he served as IMF resident representative in Nepal and in Ethiopia, mission chief to Chad, Cape Verde, and Sierra Leone. He was also Director of IMF East AFRITAC in Tanzania from 2013-2016. He has served as Assistant to Antoinette Sayeh, currently Deputy Managing Director of the IMF. Prior to joining the IMF, Mr. Singh worked at the Bank of England, was an Overseas Development Institute fellow at the Bank of Guyana and worked at the Canadian International Development Agency. He is a national of the UK. STAFF NEWS: MR. VIMAL THAKOOR, RESIDENT ADVISOR (MACROECONOMICS AND CLIMATE) Vimal Thakoor joined the ATI as Resident Advisor (Macroeconomics and Climate) in September 2022. He joined the IMF’s Economist Program in 2011 and previously worked in the Fiscal Affairs, African, and Strategy and Policy Review Departments. Vimal was part of the IMF’s core teams that developed the Fund’s strategy on climate change and the recently established Resilience and Sustainability Trust. He has worked on a range of countries, more recently on South Africa and Turkey. At the Fund, Vimal was involved in analytical work on demographic transitions, structural reforms, governance, and inequality. His research on climate covers debt for climate swaps, climate risks, and policy levers to catalyze climate finance. Vimal was a Chevening Scholar and holds a PhD in Economics from Birmingham (UK). STAFF NEWS: MS. SHAMNEEZ MOHAMUDBUCUS, IT ADMINISTRATOR Ms. Mohamudbucus is a technology expert in the field since 2013, having been part of the Prime Minister’s Office of the Government of Mauritius for the National Identity Card Project and the R&D of Asia Pacific University in Kuala Lumpur for Smart & Intelligent Application Development related to light rail system payment and parking systems. With a passion-driven and kind personality, she is the one to consult for strong solutions to address IT situations in both home and professional environments. As part of her master's in Applied Computing and Digital Technologies, she also developed an administrative system for the health institutions of the Ministry of Health and Wellness before joining the Africa Training Institute of the IMF on 01st July 2022. NEWS & EVENTS RESEARCH PAPER: MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORKS IN LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES (LICS) The IMF Economic Review has published a paper on Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low Income Countries (LICs), highlighting how LICs have been remarkably successful in reducing inflation to single-digit levels, and their engagement in reforms to make their monetary policy frameworks more systematic, transparent, and forward-looking, often with technical support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The paper by Alina Carare, Carlos de Resende (ATI Deputy Director), Andrew T. Levin and Chelsea Zhang provides new empirical evidence about how the characteristics of the monetary policy framework affects the propagation of shocks in LICs. The findings show that central banks in LICs can face policy tradeoffs similar to those which have been highlighted for more advanced economies, and the analysis underscores the key role of the monetary policy framework in fostering price stability and sustained economic growth in LICs. The paper can be viewed here: Do Monetary Policy Frameworks Matter in Low-Income Countries? RESEARCH PAPER: A QUARTERLY PROJECTION MODEL FOR THE WAEMU This study is a direct result of IMF training. It originated from a participant from the BCEAO in the 2018 MPAF course, delivered in Washington. The IMF teamed up with another colleague from the BCEAO and worked out the model discussed in that course to adapt it to the WAEMU economies. This study describes a semi-structural New-Keynesian Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for the WAEMU zone. In the context of a fixed exchange rate regime and relatively tight capital controls, the central bank for the WAEMU monetary union (Banque Centrale des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest, BCEAO) can exert some influence on the domestic money markets and interest rates. The authors adjusted the canonical version of a New Keynesian semi-structural Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) to capture that feature and other aspects specific to the BCEAO monetary policy framework, including an implicit foreign exchange reserve target. The model, which is parametrized though and mix of calibration and Bayesian estimation techniques, displays dynamic properties for the main variables in response to various shocks that are in line with theoretical priors and empirical evidence. Medium-term forecasts considering the Covid-19 pandemic produce sensible results when compared with forecast produced by a standard VAR. Moments computed from artificial data generated with the model match well those observed in the data. Overall, the model displays desirable analytical properties and sensible data-matching and forecasting capabilities and could, therefore, be used by the BCEAO to identify relevant shocks, map their propagation into the WAEMU regional economy, and better support its monetary policy decisions. RESEARCH PAPER: DEBT FOR CLIMATE SWAPS: ANALYSIS, DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION There is significant interest in debt-for-climate swaps among African countries following Seychelles operation. The IMF Working Paper on “Debt for Climate Swaps: Analysis, Design, and Implementation” compares such swaps—partial debt relief operations conditional on debtor commitments to undertake climate-related investments—to alternative fiscal support instruments. In general, climate conditional grants and/or broad debt restructuring are superior to swaps. There is however a small perimeter where such swaps could be useful to expand fiscal space, especially if climate grants or debt restructuring are not on the table. The paper, by Marcos Chamon, Erik Klok, Vimal Thakoor (ATI’s advisor on macroeconomics and climate), and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, explores policy actions that would benefit both debt-climate swaps and other forms of climate finance, including developing markets for debt instruments linked to climate performance. Click here to view the paper. THE ATI’S CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY In July 2022, under the Covid-19 Crisis Capacity Development Initiative (CCCDI), ATI hired a new resident advisor for macroeconomic resilience to climate and health risks to support the deployment of the center’s CCCD strategy. That strategy is been developed to support the rollout of the Fund-wide Climate Strategy and lending, including under the new Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST). It will be implemented in consultation with ICD—the backstopping depart¬ment—to support member countries integrate climate considerations in their policy frameworks and enhance their readiness to implement policies that support resilience building by providing CD in the macroeco¬nomic analysis and forecasting in the context of climate change and pandemics, including with respect to public debt dynamics. The work of the new resident advisor for macroeconomic resilience will be closely linked to ICD’s Macroeconomic Frameworks TA and integrated with the IMF’s work on climate change and pandemics conducted in other departments (RES, SPR, FAD). The resident advisor will coordinate the development and delivery of multi-country and single-country courses on climate change, macroeconomics of pandemics, public debt, and other relevant topics, and provide TA on the integration of climate and health risks scenarios in macroeconomic frameworks. He will help identify and address CD needs, considering individual countries’ policy regimes, as well as macro analysis and forecasting capacity levels, and will undertake these activities through training and technical assistance missions, peer-to-peer learning activities, and any other CD delivery modality considered adequate to the objectives and char¬acteristics of the member countries, either alone or together with IMF staff and/or specialized short-term experts employed by the IMF. The advisor will coordinate closely with ICD to ensure consistency with other IMF CD activities. He will coordinate with ICD and other IMF departments to ensure complemen¬tarity of, and avoid overlaps in, the CD support provided to member countries by IMF HQ and resident advisors stationed in other Regional Capacity Development Centers (RCDCs). Consistency and syner¬gies with surveillance will be sought, also under the supervision of ICD and in close coordination with the ATI Director, through medium-term projects and 12-month work plans in collaboration with various stakeholders, particularly IMF AFR country teams. RESUMPTION OF IN-PERSON COURSES After two years of virtual training and engagement, ATI brought back its first in-person training since the pandemic, starting with the two-week Financial Programming and Policies (FPP) course in July 2022. Twenty-one participants working in central banks and finance ministries’ macro units from the region enrolled in that training. They actively engaged in the course and enjoyed the in-person interactions and knowledge exchange that was missing during virtual training. Building on the success of this course, ATI organized further in-person courses and has resumed travel in the region to offer technical assistance and customized training. Mr. Elton Jorge CAVADIAS, Analyst, Research Department, Banco de Moçambique, Mozambique The reopening of the economies made it possible for us to take part in a face-to-face monetary policy course, which allowed us to improve our understanding of how the monetary policy responds to macroeconomic shocks in different regimes. The course was particularly effective as it enabled greater interaction between the ATI facilitators and the participants, with emphasis on the practical workshops in which the effects of shocks, transmission mechanisms and the reaction of monetary policy to restore balance were simulated and discussed. Mr. Frederic Joseph BOMBA MBIDA, Economist/Assistant of the Central Bank, Direction des Etude, Direction De La Recherche, Banque des États de l'Afrique Centrale I am very happy with the resumption of face-to-face classes, concurrently with virtual and online ones. Indeed, even if the previous ones are also very interesting, they require very great motivation on the part of the learners because, in many cases, the professional tasks are not suspended during these moments. And, adding to this the technical difficulties that arise at times, it is not always easy to follow these courses entirely. With the return of face-to-face courses, the sessions will be more user-friendly, participants will be able to better devote themselves to them and, for sure, acquire new skills. ATI IN NUMBERS Over July-December 2022, 317 officials from across 46 sub-Saharan African countries attended ATI courses. But demand remains very high with total applications over this period of 2548, exceeding acceptance by almost ten-fold on average, and significantly more in courses such as Financial Programming and Policies and Monetary Policy. This puts a premium on careful selection by both member countries and ATI, and on seeking ways to leverage virtual modalities to expand reach. About one quarter of applicants over the second semester were female. Consistent with encouraging female participation, the acceptance rate of female applicants (20%) is twice that of male applicants. ATI has also been encouraging increased participation particularly from Lusophone countries now that courses are also delivered in Portuguese. One half of applicants were from Anglophone countries, and further 40% from Francophone and 10 percent from Lusophone countries. However, acceptance rates were much higher for Lusophone applicants at around twice those of other languages. ATI TRAINING During July-December 2022, ATI hosted 17 courses on core IMF areas such as Monetary Policy and emerging areas such as Climate. Below, we highlight three of these courses, with the remaining courses listed in Table 1. ATI TRAINING Long term Fiscal Sustainability and Climate-Change Risks October 17- 21, 2022 The workshop was jointly delivered by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) of the IMF, Africa Training Institute, AFRITAC South and AFRITAC East to 33 participants from 25 countries. Participants benefitted from unique access to FAD staff, ATI lecturers, their regional macro-fiscal advisors, and peers from across the region. They received training on the preparation of long-term macro-fiscal scenarios under different climate change profiles and the management of fiscal risks related to climate change. Training drew on a new methodology being developed by FAD, which combines a long-term fiscal projection framework with long-term GDP projections linked to rising temperatures. This training, which received an average rating of 4.8 out of 5.0 on overall satisfaction, generated interest in participants who indicated the need for follow-up technical assistance. ATI TRAINING The Macroeconomics of Climate Change November 28- December 9, 2022 The 2-week course on the Macroeconomics of Climate Change attracted 33 participants from 22 countries. The course explored the science and economics of Climate Change, Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation economics, Carbon Pricing Mechanism, the investments required for net zero transmission, Assessing climate risks in the financial system and financial stability risks from Climate Change. The course received an evaluation of 4.7 out of 5, with a learning gain of 23.2%. Feedback from participants included appreciation of the tools and templates, which would help them to contribute to discussions in meaningful ways and formulate policies that can be implemented. ATI TRAINING Monetary Policy November 7- 18, 2022 This first hybrid delivery of the Monetary Policy course at ATI had participation from sixteen sub-Saharan African countries: eight countries are fragile or conflict-affected states. The 24 participants (12 female) were selected from over 400 applicants. Despite many challenges, in particular with flights, COVID-19 and internet access, participants gave the course an overall rating of 4.8 out of 5. There was a significant broad-based learning gain of 22.8 percentage points; almost 2/3rds of participants had a final test score of over 60%. Participants appreciated the considerable time allocated to practical workshops sessions and some urged even more hands-on work in future deliveries. WEBINARS/OUTREACH To complement classroom training and diversify its modalities of CD delivery, ATI hosted 9 non-course events (webinars, virtual conferences, and workshops, outreach and peer-to-peer research seminars) between July and December 2022. Five are summarized in Table 2, three are detailed below (including the peer-to-peer event) and the webinar on the Macroeconomics of Pandemics is listed described in Table 1. OUTREACH Outreach Meeting with Ambassadors on IMF and ATI Climate Work September 26, 2022 The ATI/AFS hosted the representatives from the EU, France, Japan, US, and UK to present the IMF’s Climate Strategy and planned CD on climate. The representatives noted the comprehensive and well-articulated nature of the Fund’s climate coverage and the relevant macroeconomic and financial dimensions being covered. They noted that demand for climate TA was on the rise and encouraged additional focus on the risks posed to small island developing states. They welcomed the Fund’s capacity building efforts, particularly on green PFM and climate PIMA, and encouraged additional focus on access to finance and debt issues. The representatives looked forward to closer collaboration on climate issues, including in the context of the recently set up Development Partners Group coordinated by the UN local office in Mauritius. WEBINAR IMF – AFR High Level Policy Dialogue on Inequality: Developments and Policy Challenges in the Post-COVID environment September 20-21, 2022 The inequality conference provided a platform to exchange views between policy makers from both Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, prominent academics, CSOs, the WB and the IMF management, including DMD Sayeh and African Department Director Mr. Selassie. The key takeaway from the seminar include the following: (i) it is essential to act now to ensure that the widening inequalities within countries, between countries, and between continents don’t become entrenched, as sustained inequality can leave long-lasting scars and undermine economic, social and political stability; and (ii) recent shocks confirm the importance of strengthening countries’ social protection systems. Providing targeted support to the most vulnerable groups in Sub-Saharan Africa is the most effective way to reduce inequality. Across the world, we have seen evidence of the positive impact and cost-effectiveness of social protection interventions that contribute to poverty reduction, building human capital, job creation, resilience in the face of shocks, and increasing productivity. Countries in the region—including the cases of Senegal, Rwanda, Mozambique, Togo, showcases in the event—are making progress strengthening their social protection systems, benefiting from technologies and digitalization to facilitate their delivery. It is essential to continue and scale up this process. The event was followed by over 6,000 people in different social media platforms. WEBINAR Fintech and Financial Inclusion and The Case of Bangladesh September 28, 2022 The Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI), IMF – South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center (SARTTAC), and the Africa Training Institute (ATI) hosted a peer-learning event time on Bangladesh’s financial inclusion strategy. This event focused on the role of fintech to foster financial inclusion and its application in Africa and Asia, including the case of Bangladesh. IMF Deputy Managing Director Antoinette Sayeh delivered opening remarks. The event also featured Bangladesh Bank Governor Abdur Rouf Talukder and other government officials and private sector representatives. Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee and Central Bank of Kenya Governor Patrick Njoroge shared share their experiences with digital money along with senior IMF management and staff. PEER-TO-PEER AND ATI RESEARCH SEMINARS The 13th session of ATI's Peer-to-Peer Research Seminar Series discussed a semi-structural, multi-country new Keynesian model for the countries in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). The model incorporates several key aspects of the CEMAC institutional and economic setup such as the importance of the oil sector for countries in the monetary union, macro-financial linkages, debt stabilization as a goal for fiscal policy, central bank liquidity injections, and a fixed exchange rate regime. Estimated using Bayesian techniques, the model provided insights on how the central bank could respond to various shocks, while accounting for the asymmetric effects across the different countries in the monetary union. The model also sheds light on spillover effects that country-specific fiscal policy measures can have on the other countries in the union. Through lively and iterative exchanges, discussants and more than 440 participants noted the innovative and rigorous approach to modelling small economies in a monetary union and raised questions about the realism of the assumptions regarding the functioning of the exchange rate peg, the degree of capital openness, and the feedback loop from fiscal policy into potential output. Discussants highlighted the usefulness of the model for policy analysis and, potentially, forecasts for the CEMAC region. FEEDBACK FROM PARTICIPANTS Reinforced know-how in the field of Macroeconomic Forecasting and Analysis Mr. Mahaman SITOU BALARABE, Economist, Directorate of Research and Forecasting, Ministry of Plan, Niger This training was a great success on all levels. I return to my country with a reinforced know-how in the field of Macroeconomic Forecasting and Analysis. My country will benefit the most from this training because I undertake to report to the higher authorities but also to allow all my colleagues to benefit from the know-how that I have just capitalized on. I hope that the relationship between my country and the ATI center will be strengthened in all areas of the economy as a whole. I cannot end without expressing my sincere thanks to the authorities of the ATI training center for having organized this seminar. I had the opportunity to analyze the economic zone of ECOWAS... Mr. Pascual Afugu ESONO MBENGONO, National Accountant, Statistics and Economic Studies, National Institute of Statistics, Equatorial Guinea I congratulate myself for having been selected to participate in the virtual course: Economic Issues in Regional Integration from October 31 to November 11, 2022. The experience of this course was enormous, because we had the opportunity to see how the economic zones function in the different continents, as well as the economic policies implemented by these areas. I had the opportunity to analyze the economic zone of ECOWAS which is one of the largest Economic Community of Africa in extension and in population, which gave us a lot of information and details of the existing political will for the materialization of the free movement of goods, services, capital as well as people. The presentations by the panelists were very clear as well as examples, the debates charming. The panelists let the participants ask questions that have always been well answered. Group work with colleagues very exciting. In general, this course has been very important and interesting for my continuity as a professional in economic analysis. Being taught such a challenging course in a hands-on manner …provided the best possible experience to learn Mr. Michael D Titoe Jr, Assistant Director, Research, Policy and Planning Department, Central Bank of Liberia, Liberia It was a great experience being at the African Training Institute in Mauritius to take the course on Monetary and Fiscal Policy Analysis using DSGE Models. Being taught such a challenging course in a hands-on manner and in a very conducive environment provided the best possible experience to learn as facilitators could be directly engaged to clarify issues during lectures and the workshop sessions. With the advanced knowledge acquired in DSGE modeling, I am going to help improve policy analysis and forecasting at the Central Bank of Liberia. SUKHWINDER SINGH Director, Africa Training Institute and AFRITAC South Thank you for reading this Newsletter! Please send me a note for any further inquiries. IMF.org/CapDev IMF.org/Training The Africa Training Institute (ATI) is part of a network of IMF regional training centers around the world, which help develop countries’ policymaking capacity by transferring economic skills and best practices. Mauritius, Malawi, Nigeria, South Africa, Zimbabwe, China, Germany, and European Investment bank are the current donors of the institute. The institute is located in Bramer House, Ebene, Mauritius. CONTRIBUTING PARTNER - PHASE I CONTRIBUTING PARTNER - PHASE II NEWSLETTER ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The preparation of this 9th Edition of the Newsletter was prepared by Ms. Charline Ramspacher, Economist at ATI, and Mr. Carlos de Resende, Deputy Director at ATI. Ms. Wenda Morin, Program Officer, coordinated the logistics and editorial process. We would like to express our deep appreciation for contributions from: Mr. Kanand Gooly, Chief of Administration, ATI-IMF, Mauritius Mr. Vimal Thakoor, Economist, ATI-IMF, Mauritius Ms. Deena Veerapen, Program Officer, ATI-IMF, Mauritius Ms. Diksha Ramdawa, Program Officer, ATI-IMF, Mauritius Ms. Anna Joorun-Somna, Junior Program Officer, ATI-IMF, Mauritius Ms. Shamneez Mohamudbucus, IT Administrator, ATI-IMF, Mauritius Mr. Steeve Rackin, IT Technician, ATI-IMF, Mauritius, Mauritius Mr. Elton Jorge CAVADIAS, Analyst, Research Department, Banco de Moçambique, Mozambique Mr. Frederic Joseph BOMBA MBIDA, Economist/Assistant of the Central Bank, Direction des Etude, Direction De La Recherche, Banque des États de l'Afrique centrale Mr. Mahaman Sitou Balarabe, Economist, Directorate of Research and Forecasting, Ministry of Plan, Niger Mr. Pascual Afugu ESONO MBENGONO, National Accountant, Statistics and Economic Studies, National Institute of Statistics, Equatorial Guinea Mr. Michael D Titoe Jr, Assistant Director, Research, Policy and Planning Department, Central Bank of Liberia, Liberia